Tag Archives: war

Food security is a manipulative term

Food security is a manipulative political code phrase designed to scare people and thereby make them support agricultural subsidies, as I have written before. The fear is created by association with sieges before the age of gunpowder, where castles were starved into submission. In modern times, no enemy is silly enough to try to surround and starve a country that is not a city state (e.g. Singapore), because any enemy with a large enough force to prevent food from getting into a country is also strong enough to conquer it quickly by frontal attack. Even unintentional starvation is a public relations disaster (e.g. Yemen), as is a war that drags on, but a quick takeover without too many casualties (e.g. Crimea) actually increases the conqueror’s leader’s popularity in internal politics.

Even if an enemy was stupid and tried to starve a country, the defense against this is not farm subsidies, but many distributed small stockpiles of food. Farms as a food supply are easy to destroy by firebombing the crops and livestock from the air. A small number of large centralised stockpiles are also vulnerable. However, if each household is obliged to keep n months’ worth of non-perishable food at home, then starving the country into submission would take at least n months and bombardment would not shorten that period.

What is really meant by food security is that food prices might rise. However, in all except the very poorest countries in the world, food is so cheap that any reasonable price rise would not cause starvation. For example, according to the USDA, 9 medium baked potatoes fulfill all the nutritional needs of an adult. Similarly, people can survive for a long time eating just wheat flour and water. Wheat flour is 80 cents per kilo, and a kilo of it has 3600 kcal, which is enough for an adult for two days. The price of flour would have to rise at least a hundred times for the cost to lead to starvation in developed countries. Other emergency foods that do not go bad and can be prepared without heating are also cheap, e.g. milk powder, instant oatmeal, canned meats and vegetables.

A price rise is a financial problem, not not a real resource constraint, and as such has a financial solution – insurance. Those afraid of a price rise can use forward contracts to lock in the price. Insurance against a very low-probability event like food prices rising a hundred times is cheap (if such insurance is offered, which it might not be due to the low demand).

Remembering the sacrifice

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Many times and in many places I have seen a call to remember the sacrifice of the soldiers who died in some past conflict. Often, this call seems an attempt to direct attention away from the misguidedness of the particular conflict or the incompetence and selfish motives of the leadership who decided to enter the war. It tries to make people focus on the noble courage of the soldiers, not the sordid power-hunger of the rulers. The bravery of soldiers is discussed in another post (http://sanderheinsalu.com/ajaveeb/?p=595); here I would like to clarify this sacrifice business.

If the soldiers volunteered under reasonably accurate information about the reasons for the conflict and the chances of success, then indeed they chose to sacrifice themselves for the cause. Then we should remember their sacrifice. If, however, they were conscripted (dictatorships often call this volunteering) using the threat of punishment for them or their family, then they did not make the sacrifice any more than a sacrificial animal sacrifices itself. Others sacrificed the conscripts to further their own ends.

These ends are unlikely to prioritize defeating an evil regime and making the world a better place, although the propaganda claims this was the objective. Mostly the goal of leaders is to preserve and expand their power, whether by defending the country against takeover or conquering additional subjects and wealth. Even if this is acknowledged, current propaganda may point out some good side effect of sacrificing the soldiers, e.g. defeating an old enemy. This is again a distraction attempt. The world is complex and interconnected, so every event, including a mass death, has some beneficial side effects, just like every event has some negative side effects. One should consider the overall consequences of an event, not just one side effect.

If the soldiers genuinely volunteered, but due to being misled by propaganda, then they wanted to sacrifice themselves for one cause, but their leaders sacrificed them for another. Usually volunteers underestimate the length of the war and the probability of dying. Thus even when they know the true goal of the conflict, the sacrifice they are led to is larger than the one they intended to make.

The most clear and direct self-sacrifice is made by suicide bombers. They probably think that their bombing serves a good purpose, but such belief is almost always misguided. Religious indoctrination of the bombers manipulates them into believing in a noble cause, hiding the true goals of the leaders ordering the bombing.

I have not heard many calls to remember the sacrifice of present-day child soldiers. Rather there are calls to pity and save them. The situation of many soldiers in many wars has been similar to children forced to fight – ignorance and fear of punishment. Obeying the conscription order often offers a greater survival probability than refusal.

Instead of remembering the sacrifice of conscripts, we should remember them being sacrificed. Remember with pity. Remember to prevent.

On reporting on the Syrian war