Crowdfunding platforms, stock exchanges and other providers of two-sided markets want to appear popular, because having more buyers attracts more sellers and vice versa. The platform’s revenue is usually proportional to the number of users, because it charges a commission fee on trades or advertisers pay it to show ads to users. The exchange’s marginal cost of a user is close to zero, giving it an incentive to fake a high volume of trades, a large limit order book and a small bid-ask spread.
The platform’s cost of posting a great volume of outstanding buy and sell orders at a small spread is that many investors try to trade at these favourable bid and ask prices. Either the market maker has to take the other side of these attempted transactions or is found fraudulent. Taking the other side results in a large loss if some investors are better informed than the exchange.
The platform could falsely display a large trading volume, but keep the order book honestly small by adding fake trades at prices between the bid and the ask only, so no investor’s real limit order is ignored. This seems difficult to detect, unless one side of the limit order book is empty (e.g. no buyers) and at least one at-market order on the other side (e.g. a sell) is outstanding. In this case, any trades occurring would have to satisfy the at-market order. However, the platform or real investors can then take the other side of the at-market order at a very favourable price to themselves, which discourages at-market orders. A large trading volume with a thin order book is still slightly suspicious, because it requires that crossing buy and sell orders between the bid and ask prices arrive almost simultaneously, in order to be matched without appearing on the order book for long, and without triggering the real limit orders. Displaying the fake buys and sells on the order book risks attracting actual matching trades, which the platform would have to honour (at a cost).
Without automated quote matching, there are no at-market orders, for example on the Funderbeam crowdfunding platform. Instead, everyone either posts a limit order or picks an order from the other side to trade with, e.g. a buyer chooses a sell. Investors can pick an order with a worse price (higher sell or lower buy) on the other side, which frequently occurs on Funderbeam. Choosing a worse price is irrational, unless the traders in question are colluding, so the asset is effectively not changing ownership. Reasons to carry out such seemingly irrational trades are to manipulate price and volume, e.g. price can be raised or reduced by targeted trades outside the bid-ask interval. Volume can only increase after added trades, rational or not, but such seemingly greater activity is exactly what benefits the stakeholders of the platform. The employees of the market maker have a natural motive to fake-trade between themselves to make their firm look good, even without any inappropriate pressure from their boss.
Another way to attract issuers and investors is to demonstrate successful initial public offerings, meaning that the funds are raised quickly (good for issuers) and the price of the newly listed stock (or other asset) goes up, which benefits investors. Adding fake capital-raisers is difficult, because potential investors will check the background of the supposed issuer. Inserting spoof investors into an actual funding campaign is costly, because real money would have to be invested. One way to manipulate popularity upward is to simultaneously add a fake issuer and fake investors who satisfy its funding need. The idea is to not leave time for real investors to participate in the campaign, by pretending that the capital-raiser achieved its target funding level before most investors could react. This is easier in markets with a small number of real investors and without an auto-invest feature. However, the real investors who were supposedly pre-empted may still research the supposedly very popular issuer.
A costless way to briefly boost the popularity of a real fundraising campaign is to add fake investors after the target funding is achieved, and forbid issuers from increasing the target or accepting funds from those who subscribed after the goal was reached. Any campaign meeting its target can then be made to look heavily oversubscribed. However, if the issuers are informed in advance of the restriction not to increase the target, then they may find an alternative unrestricted platform to raise funds. On the other hand, if the restriction is not mentioned beforehand, then it will likely anger the issuers who will then create negative publicity for the platform. Competition between exchanges thus curtails their manipulation incentives.
The platform can motivate real investors to raise their bids when the campaign reaches its target by rationing demand: bidders in an oversubscribed share issue get only a fraction of what they wanted to buy. Anticipating this, buyers will increase their requested quantities so that the fraction of their new bid equals their actual demand. This makes the campaign look oversubscribed and creates a feedback loop: if other investors increase their quantities, then rationing reduces the fraction of a given investor’s demand that will be satisfied, so this investor raises her or his requested amount, which in turn makes others increase theirs.
If investors know of the bid rationing in advance, then they may select a rival market provider without this restriction, but if rationing takes them by surprise, then they may leave and publicly criticise the platform. Capital-raisers compare exchanges, so if many market providers inflate demand and the issuers pay attention to the level of oversubscription (instead of the fraction of campaigns reaching the target, which is what should matter to the capital-raiser), then the biggest inflator wins. Of course, platforms may not want to reveal unsuccessful campaigns (e.g. Funderbeam does not), so public data on the fraction of issuers who achieved their funding goal is unlikely to exist.
Theoretically, the feedback from bid rationing to increased quantity demanded could lead to infinite amounts requested. A countervailing incentive is that with positive probability, other investors do not honour their commitment to buy, in which case a given investor may be required to buy the amount (s)he demanded, instead of the lower amount (s)he actually wanted. If there is no commitment to buy (for example, on Funderbeam the bids are only non-binding indications of interest), then the danger of overcommitting is absent, so the rational choice seems to be requesting an infinite amount. Investors do not indicate infinite interest, so either they are irrational or some other penalty exists for outbidding one’s capability to pay.