Identifying unmeasurable effort in contests

To distinguish unmeasurable effort from unmeasurable exogenous factors like talent or environmental interference in contests, assumptions are needed, even for partial identification when overall performance can be objectively measured (e.g., chess move quality evaluated by a computer). Combining one of the following assumptions with the additive separability of effort and the exogenous factors provides sign restrictions on coefficient estimates. Additive separability means that talent or the environment changes performance the same way at any effort level.

One such identifying assumption is that effort is greatest when it makes the most difference – against an equal opponent. By contrast, effort is lower against much better and much worse opponents.

A similar identifying assumption is that if there is personal conflict between some contest participants but not others, then effort is likely higher against a hated opponent than a neutral one.

The performance of a given contestant against an equal opponent compared to against an unequal one is a lower bound on how much effort affects performance. Similarly, the performance against a hated rival compared to against a neutral contestant is a lower bound on the effect of effort. The lower bound is not the total influence of effort, because even against an unequal neutral opponent, effort is still positive.

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